死在火星上

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对火星轨道变化问题的最后解释

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The variation of eccentricities and orbital inclinations for the inner four planets in the initial and final part of the integration N+1 is shown in Fig. 4. As expected, the character of the variation of planetary orbital elements does not differ significantly between the initial and final part of each integration, at least for Venus, Earth and Mars. The elements of Mercury, especially its eccentricity, seem to change to a significant extent. This is partly because the orbital time-scale of the planet is the shortest of all the planets, which leads to a more rapid orbital evolution than other planets; the innermost planet may be nearest to instability. This result appears to be in some agreement with Laskar's (1994, 1996) expectations that large and irregular variations appear in the eccentricities and inclinations of Mercury on a time-scale of several 109 yr. However, the effect of the possible instability of the orbit of Mercury may not fatally affect the global stability of the whole planetary system owing to the small mass of Mercury. We will mention briefly the long-term orbital evolution of Mercury later in Section 4 using low-pass filtered orbital elements.

The orbital motion of the outer five planets seems rigorously stable and quite regular over this time-span (see also Section 5).

3.2 Time–frequency maps

Although the planetary motion exhibits very long-term stability defined as the non-existence of close encounter events, the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics can change the oscillatory period and amplitude of planetary orbital motion gradually over such long time-spans. Even such slight fluctuations of orbital variation in the frequency domain, particularly in the case of Earth, can potentially have a significant effect on its surface climate system through solar insolation variation (cf. Berger 1988).

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